Juan Soto’s impending free agency is one of the biggest stories in Major League Baseball this season. We just got a big hint on which direction it is likely to take.
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan published an article looking ahead to MLB free agency this winter, and Soto’s future represented a big part of it. Passan claims almost everyone expects the slugger’s future free agent destination to come down to a decision between two teams: the New York Yankees and New York Mets. And the cost will be as high as you were expecting.
While no one knows what Soto’s price tag will eventually be, Passan has an idea of where the bidding will start. He writes, “It’s with that knowledge—the recognition that age, as much as skill, drives baseball free agency, and Soto’s combination of both is singular—the industry agrees the floor for his contract will be $500 million.”
The floor for Soto’s next deal will be the second largest total contract in MLB history. And it’s almost certain there will be a bidding war.
Passan notes that while teams like the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs could probably afford Soto, they are all considered long shots to acquire him. So in reality there are only two likely destinations. He wrote, “At the end of the day, high-ranking front office and ownership-level sources believe the winter for Soto is going to play out like this: Yankees vs. Mets.”
None of this is a big surprise. Many expected the two New York teams to be in the race for Soto, and after Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal with the Dodgers last winter, conventional wisdom was Soto’s deal would approach that level.
Soto will turn 26 on October 25 and will do so as an incredibly accomplished player. He’s a four-time All-Star, two-time All-MLB first team selection, four-time Silver Slugger Award winner and he helped lead the Washington Nationals to a World Series title in 2019. Over the course of his seven-year career, he’s slashing .286/.422/.536, with 197 home runs, 578 RBIs, with an OPS of .958 and an OPS+ of 161.
Soto is having a career year in his first season with the New York Yankees, likely inflating the price for would-be suitors. Entering Tuesday’s action he’s slashing .296/.427/.600, with 37 home runs, 95 RBIs, an OPS of 1.027 and 109 walks against 91 strikeouts. Excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season, his on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS are all career highs, while he’s already topped his career-best home run mark of 35 with more than a month left in the season.
The battle to land Soto is likely to come down to the two New York teams. And he’ll almost certainly garner the second-biggest contract in MLB history.
